This article was originally published by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse Blog under the title: The Battle For The Strait Of Hormuz Will Show Whether The World Can Survive Without Oil From The Persian Gulf Or Not
Now, we are going to see what really happens to the global economy when the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed for an extended period of time. Before the war, approximately 45 percent of all Asian oil imports traveled through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Chinese normally get more oil from the Middle East than anyone else, and the amount of crude oil that they have been importing has collapsed. That is not sustainable for the Chinese, and they are getting very angry. At the same time, relentless drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure have forced the Russians to buy gasoline from India. If the Strait of Hormuz remains completely closed for months, global energy supplies will get extremely tight, and the price of oil will go into unprecedented territory.
On Monday, the world was shocked when two oil tankers from the United Arab Emirates were struck by Iranian cruise missiles…
Iranian cruise missiles hit two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member and injuring eight, the United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Defense said Monday.
The attacks took place when the tankers — Mombasa and Al Bahiyah — were sailing through the strait’s southern shipping lane, which hugs the coast of Oman, the defense ministry said. Iran has insisted that commercial ships use a separate lane near the Iranian coastline and seek permission from Iranian authorities. Iran has not publicly commented on the apparent attacks.
The deceased crew member and six injured crew members were Indian nationals, and two of those injured were from Ukraine, according to the United Arab Emirates.
The Iranians have warned that any commercial vessels that attempt to travel through the Strait of Hormuz without their permission are subject to attack, and they were not bluffing.
On Tuesday, three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were also attacked by the Iranians…
Oman’s Maritime Security Center said Tuesday that three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were targeted in separate incidents off the Omani coast.
The center said the Al Bahyah, owned by Al Bahyah Inc. and based in the United Arab Emirates, was targeted about 9.6 nautical miles off the coast of Musandam Governorate.
A Royal Navy of Oman vessel is monitoring the situation, and 18 crew members were evacuated by nearby maritime vessels, while three crew members remain missing, officials said.
These attacks have brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill.
And that isn’t going to change any time soon, because the IRGC just announced that “as long as the US evil stays in the region, not a drop of oil and gas will be exported from the region”…
Amid ongoing cross-Gulf attacks today between Iranian and US forces, the IRGC says they targeted enemy weapons and parts storages in Bahrain and Kuwait. This after the US appeared to attack some critical Iranian infrastructure on coastal islands.
The IRGC has issued a fresh statement via state media on Tuesday, saying that “as long as the US evil stays in the region, not a drop of oil and gas will be exported from the region.”
Wow.
That is quite a strong statement.
Meanwhile, President Trump has decided to impose a “full blockade” on all ship traffic coming to and from Iran…
This is really happening.
Even before these latest moves, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to the lowest level in five weeks…
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dipped on Sunday to the lowest number in five weeks as the latest U.S.-Iran escalation reignited concerns among ship operators about safety at the key oil and LNG chokepoint.
Now that the Iranians have shown that they are quite serious about enforcing the closure of the Strait, it is highly unlikely that shipping companies will dare to test them.
Even the smallest oil tankers cost millions of dollars, and so if you own one, you don’t want it getting sent to the bottom of the ocean by a cruise missile.
And the U.S. Navy is going to make sure that no Iranian oil gets shipped out of the region.
The U.S. blockade of Iran is really going to upset the Chinese because they depend on that oil.
On Tuesday, they demanded the resumption of “normal and safe passage” through the Strait…
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson demanded “normal and safe passage” be restored in the Strait of Hormuz Tuesday before the United States reinstated a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports.
Lin Jian made the remark when asked by Iranian state media about the renewed U.S. military blockade and if Beijing is “prepared to take any concrete steps to mitigate the impact of these measures against Iran and deepen its economic and military cooperation with Iran.” President Donald Trump said Monday he was reinstating the blockade because Iran broke the recent ceasefire deal by launching missile attacks on commercial tankers and by trying to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
“China is deeply concerned over resumed military conflict in the Gulf region. China calls on relevant parties to heed the strong call for peace and stability from the region and beyond, remain calm and exercise restraint, safeguard the hard-won ceasefire, avoid the return of war and more importantly, prevent the fighting from spreading and hurting more innocent people,” Lin Jian said Tuesday.
The good news for the Chinese is that they have larger oil reserves than anyone else.
But the bad news is that China’s crude oil imports have fallen to exceedingly low levels…
China’s crude oil imports crashed to a decade-low in June as the reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz hiked oil prices and reduced refiners’ appetite for costly crude.
Overall Chinese imports of crude oil plunged by 41.3% in June from a year earlier, to just 29.27 million tons, or 7.12 million barrels per day (bpd), according to official Chinese customs data released on Tuesday.
If this crisis goes on for long enough, China will be forced to do something to restore the flow of oil.
But unless one side chooses to back down, there is no chance that this crisis will end any time soon.
As a former Pentagon official named Jason H. Campbell has pointed out, bombing Iran from the air will not be enough to win the battle for the Strait of Hormuz…
“It’s very difficult to envision any scenario where you could satisfactorily secure the Strait of Hormuz absent ground forces,” Campbell said.
Doing so would require tens of thousand of troops, Campbell said, not only to take out Iran’s hidden munitions but to secure hundreds of miles of coastline and large swaths of inland territory. The U.S. troops would likely face insurgent attacks.
Standing up that kind of force would take a few months and include “very high costs,” Campbell said.
This is what I have been saying all along.
Hitting Iran from the air is not going to get the job done, but sending ground forces in is unthinkable.
So where do we go from here?
For now, the bombing of Iran continues.
On Tuesday, the Iranians hit Bahrain with cluster munitions, and the U.S. response has already begun…
We are also being told that the U.S. is attacking Qeshm Island once again…
Projectiles hit Iran’s Gulf island of Qeshm near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, Iran’s state broadcaster reported, citing local officials who blamed the U.S.
“At 19:00, a location on Qeshm Island was struck by projectiles from the American enemy,” Hormozgan governor’s office said, according to IRIB.
This is it.
Iran War 3 is here.
The IDF is not an active participant yet, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is telling the Iranians that they will get hit really hard if Israel is attacked…
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran Tuesday that Israel would hit back if attacked.
“Do not count on things remaining quiet if you attack us,” Netanyahu said at a conference in Dimona, in Israel’s southeast, in a video released by his office. “The days are over when someone strikes us and we don’t hit back with a decisive blow.”
I think that it is just a matter of time before Iranian missiles are flying toward Israel once again.
And then things will get really crazy.
Speaking of crazy, the Houthis just bombarded an airport in Saudi Arabia after one of their own airports got bombed by the Saudis…
Meanwhile, the threat of Iranian-backed Houthis being dragged into the war was raised when Saudi Arabia said the militant group fired ballistic missiles and drones at a civilian airport in the kingdom’s southwestern city of Abha.
The attacks were the first major fighting since a 2022 truce that ended a seven-year conflict between northern Yemen’s Tehran-aligned rulers and several Arab countries.
The militant group had accused the Saudis of bombing its airport in the capital Sanaa to prevent the landing of a plane returning the Houthi delegation from the funeral of Iran’s slain leader, Ali Khamenei.
A full-blown war between the Houthis and the Saudis could erupt at any time.
And that could drag in Pakistan, because the Pakistanis recently signed a mutual defense pact with the Saudis…
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Tuesday in a post on X that Pakistan “strongly condemns” the Houthi ballistic missile attacks targeting southern Saudi Arabia, calling them a violation of the kingdom’s sovereignty and reaffirming Islamabad’s “unwavering support” for its security.
The time for talk is over.
I am convinced that we will soon witness some absolutely shocking escalations, and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for an extended period of time.
This will be a real test of the resilience of the global economy.
Oil stockpiles are being steadily depleted, and once they get low enough, there will be a tremendous amount of panic.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com, including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books, you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream, and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.
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